The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that global public debt could exceed 100 % of world GDP by 2029, underscoring rising fiscal strains across nations.
In its latest Fiscal Monitor report, the IMF projects that public debt will climb due to a combination of elevated spending pressures, slower growth, and tighter financial conditions.
Today, global public debt stands at around 95 % of GDP and is already above pre-pandemic levels. Tariff tensions, demographic shifts, climate costs, and defense spending are among the pressures pushing debt upward. In a more severe scenario, the IMF warns debt might reach up to 123 % of GDP—levels not seen since the aftermath of World War II.
For many low and middle income countries, rising debt service costs may crowd out spending on health, education, and infrastructure. Advanced economies with deeper financial markets have more flexibility, but are not immune to spillover risks. Policymakers are being urged to act now: adopt credible fiscal adjustment plans, redirect spending toward growth-boosting investments, and build buffers against shocks. The coming years will test whether nations can manage debt without derailing growth or triggering financial instability.